Then & Now — The Ledger of American Intervention

A juxtaposition of how the United States perceived countries at the moment of intervention and the posture we hold toward them today. Not comprehensive — no list could be. But honest enough to be useful.

Iran (1953)

Then

Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh nationalized Iran's oil industry, threatening British and American petroleum interests. The Eisenhower administration framed the threat as communist infiltration. In August 1953, the CIA and MI6 orchestrated Operation Ajax, toppling Mosaddegh and reinstalling Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The CIA later acknowledged the coup was carried out "under CIA direction" and "as an act of U.S. foreign policy, conceived and approved at the highest levels of government."

The Shah ruled for 26 years with American support, presiding over a modernizing but authoritarian state backed by the feared SAVAK secret police.

What happened

The 1979 Islamic Revolution overthrew the Shah. The ensuing hostage crisis (444 days) severed diplomatic ties. Iran became the face of anti-American sentiment in the Middle East.

Now

The U.S. and Iran have had no formal diplomatic relations since 1980. Relations are defined by nuclear standoffs, proxy conflicts across the Middle East, sanctions regimes, and — as of early 2026 — direct military strikes. Iranian nationalists still cite the 1953 coup as proof of American imperial intent. The Council on Foreign Relations ranked U.S. support for Mosaddegh's overthrow as the fourth-worst U.S. foreign policy decision in SHAFR historian polling.

Sources: CIA declassified documents (2013, 2023); CFR "Ten Best and Ten Worst" series; Stephen Kinzer, All the Shah's Men (2003); NPR, "7 Key Points in U.S.-Iran Relations" (2026).

Guatemala (1954)

Then

President Jacobo Árbenz implemented land reforms that expropriated unused land from the United Fruit Company. The Eisenhower administration — with Dulles brothers deeply tied to UFCO — labeled Árbenz a communist. The CIA launched Operation PBSUCCESS, using psychological warfare, propaganda, and a 480-person rebel force to topple the government in June 1954.

What happened

Carlos Castillo Armas, the CIA-installed successor, reversed Árbenz's reforms. Guatemala descended into a 36-year civil war (1960–1996) that killed over 200,000 people, the vast majority Indigenous Maya civilians. A UN truth commission later concluded the Guatemalan state committed acts of genocide.

Now

The U.S. and Guatemala maintain diplomatic relations, but the relationship is dominated by migration politics and development aid. Guatemala is one of the top origin countries for migrants and asylum seekers at the U.S. southern border — a legacy, in part, of the instability set in motion by the 1954 coup. Historians widely regard PBSUCCESS as a tactical success and a strategic failure.

Sources: Nick Cullather, Secret History (Stanford, 2006); Responsible Statecraft (2024); Harvard ReVista, "United States Interventions."

Chile (1973)

Then

Salvador Allende, a democratically elected socialist, nationalized copper mines and expanded social programs. The Nixon administration, guided by Henry Kissinger, authorized the CIA to destabilize Chile's economy and support a military coup. On September 11, 1973, General Augusto Pinochet overthrew Allende, who died during the assault on the presidential palace.

What happened

Pinochet ruled for 17 years. His regime killed or disappeared over 3,000 people and tortured tens of thousands more. The U.S. maintained relations and economic support throughout much of the dictatorship.

Now

Chile is a stable democracy and close U.S. economic partner, with strong trade ties and a free trade agreement since 2004. But the Pinochet years remain a deep wound in Chilean national memory, and U.S. involvement is neither forgotten nor forgiven by large segments of Chilean society. Declassified documents released in the 1990s and 2000s confirmed the depth of American complicity.

Sources: Peter Kornbluh, The Pinochet File (2003); National Security Archive, George Washington University; Le Monde Diplomatique, "U.S. History of Regime Change — Revisited" (2026).

Vietnam (1955–1975)

Then

Following the French defeat at Dien Bien Phu, the U.S. backed the South Vietnamese government to prevent communist unification under Ho Chi Minh. What began as advisory support escalated into full-scale war. At peak deployment, over 500,000 American troops served in Vietnam. The stated purpose was containment — the domino theory held that losing Vietnam meant losing Southeast Asia.

What happened

The war killed an estimated 2–3 million Vietnamese and 58,000 Americans. Saigon fell in April 1975. The dominoes did not fall as predicted. Vietnam unified under communist rule.

Now

The U.S. and Vietnam are strategic partners with growing defense cooperation, trade ties, and shared concern about Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. In 2023, the relationship was elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership — Vietnam's highest diplomatic tier. The irony is sharp: the country we spent two decades trying to prevent from becoming communist is now one of our most valued counterweights to Chinese influence in the region.

Sources: Fredrik Logevall, Embers of War (2012); U.S. State Department bilateral fact sheets; Council on Foreign Relations backgrounders.

Afghanistan (2001–2021)

Then

After 9/11, the U.S. invaded to dismantle al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban government that harbored it. Initial objectives were achieved within months. Then came nation-building — a 20-year project to create democratic institutions, educate girls, and build a functioning state.

What happened

The Taliban regrouped. Corruption hollowed out Afghan institutions. The U.S. spent over $2 trillion and lost over 2,400 service members. In August 2021, the Afghan government collapsed in days as the U.S. withdrew. The Taliban retook Kabul virtually unopposed.

Now

The Taliban govern Afghanistan. Girls are banned from secondary and higher education. Women are largely erased from public life. The U.S. has no embassy in Kabul. Andrew Bacevich's summary of the pattern — "bold action, illusory success, first-class mess" — was written about earlier interventions but could have been the epitaph for this one.

Sources: Craig Whitlock, The Afghanistan Papers (2021); SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction) reports; Bacevich, The Limits of Power (2008).

Iraq (2003–2011)

Then

The Bush administration justified invasion on the basis of weapons of mass destruction and alleged links to al-Qaeda. Neither claim proved true. "We will be greeted as liberators," Vice President Cheney predicted. The initial military campaign toppled Saddam Hussein in weeks.

What happened

De-Baathification and the disbanding of the Iraqi army fueled a brutal insurgency. Sectarian civil war followed. Over 200,000 Iraqi civilians died in the violence. ISIS emerged from the wreckage of post-invasion Iraq, seizing Mosul in 2014 and requiring a second U.S.-led military campaign to dislodge.

Now

The U.S. maintains a reduced military presence in Iraq. Relations are functional but complicated by Iranian influence over Iraqi politics and militias. Iraq's sovereignty is perpetually negotiated between American, Iranian, and domestic actors. The WMD intelligence failure remains one of the most consequential in American history.

Sources: Thomas Ricks, Fiasco (2006); Dexter Filkins, The Forever War (2008); Zeteo, "Seven U.S. Regime Change Wars, Ranked" (2026).

Libya (2011)

Then

During the Arab Spring, the U.S. and NATO allies intervened to protect civilians from Muammar Gaddafi's forces. "We came, we saw, he died," Secretary Clinton said after Gaddafi's killing. The intervention was sold as humanitarian, limited, and multilateral.

What happened

After NATO forces left, rival armed groups fought over the vacuum. Libya descended into a six-year civil war, became a transit point for migrant trafficking to Europe, and saw the emergence of an ISIS affiliate. The country remains divided between competing governments.

Now

Libya has no unified government. Its most recent election attempt — the first in over a decade — was derailed by rival administrations and torched electoral offices. President Obama later called the failure to plan for a post-Gaddafi Libya the "worst mistake" of his presidency.

Sources: Zeteo (2026); The Atlantic Council; Obama interview with Fox News (2016).

The pattern

Across seven decades and multiple administrations, several threads repeat:

1. Threat inflation. The target is described in existential terms — communist, terrorist, genocidal — that make intervention feel inevitable rather than chosen.
2. Tactical success, strategic failure. Governments fall quickly. What follows does not.
3. Blowback. The intervention creates the conditions for the next crisis: Iran's revolution, Guatemala's civil war, Iraq's ISIS, Libya's collapse.
4. Memory asymmetry. Americans move on. The countries intervened in do not.
5. The Vietnam exception. The one case where the U.S. lost militarily is now the strongest partnership — suggesting that the relationship was never really about the stated rationale.

None of this means intervention is always wrong. It means the ledger deserves honest accounting, and the pattern deserves skepticism toward the next time someone says "this time is different."